The Jackpot Fallacy: Why Good Content Ideas Don’t Always Land
You try something new. Maybe a different style of content or a story you’ve never shared before. It doesn’t “hit” immediately, and your first instinct is to stop trying or delete the post. You tell yourself the idea was all wrong, or the style just isn't "you," and it’s time to pivot.
But usually, it’s not failure you’re experiencing; it’s simply poor framing.
The algorithm may not know how to categorize your content yet, or perhaps your audience hasn't quite learned how to read this new version of you. This is where we fall for the "Jackpot Fallacy,” the belief that if something is actually good, it should take off immediately. When it doesn't, we assume it isn’t worth trying again.
We may even start to retroactively hate the idea. We tell ourselves, "Clearly, I’m the only one who cares about this," or "I guess I don't know my audience." We treat low engagement as a verdict on our talent, rather than just a data point on our timing or our hook.
There is a danger here: when we let metrics kill an idea, we reject the part of ourselves that created it in the first place.
Why Meaningful Ideas Keep Returning
There’s a reason certain ideas come to you. They aren’t random, and they aren’t meaningless. They’re usually tied to something you’ve actually lived through, an unresolved emotion or a pattern you’ve spotted that feels important to recognize.
Still, the internet doesn't always reward honesty on the first try. It’s hard to trust your instincts when the numbers are low, but that’s where discernment comes in.
A while back, I had this one story I couldn't stop thinking about. I posted it, and it completely flopped. I was super bummed. A few weeks later, I tried again with a different hook. Same result. By the third and fourth attempt, I was starting to feel really discouraged. Perhaps most people would have deleted the draft by then, assuming the story was just boring. But I felt, deep down, it was something people would resonate with if it could only find the right entry point. On the fifth try, I scrapped the lead-in, wrote a rawer opening line, and jumped straight into the narrative. That was the one that finally took off. It wasn’t a new story; I had just finally found the right way to package it.
Perhaps the lesson here is that our best work often requires us to be more patient than our audience. We mistake a lackluster response for a failed idea, when really, we are just in the middle of a necessary process of refinement.
Don’t be Afraid to Repeat Yourself
One of the biggest traps creators fall into is thinking they’re being redundant. But people rarely "get it" the first time. They need to hear your message on a different day, in a different mood, or through a different lens that actually fits their life at that moment.
When you tell a story again, you aren’t just repeating yourself; you’re figuring out which words actually land and what part of the story people actually care about. Most "viral" hits aren't brand-new ideas; they’re recycled ideas finally framed the right way.
What to do when a post flops:
Instead of deleting the draft, ask yourself these three things:
Did I start with a conclusion, or did I start with the tension? (My "fifth try" worked because I changed my hook).
Am I using "insider" language that my audience hasn't learned yet?
Is this a wall of text that needs more air, or a short post that needs more depth?
The Rule of Three:
Never let an idea die after one post. Give yourself permission to share every meaningful story at least three times — each with a different hook — before you decide it isn't working.
If it matters to you, it is worth the effort of finding its audience.
Be Willing to Try Again
The creators who actually make it aren’t always the most original or even the most talented. They are simply the ones who are willing to try again. They don’t panic when engagement is low, and they don't abandon an idea just because it didn't receive immediate applause. Instead, they are willing to sit with the discomfort of a quiet launch and keep going without constant reassurance. They repeat what works, and perhaps more importantly, they revisit what almost worked. Most people quit right before the compounding effect kicks in—not because they didn’t have something worth saying, but because they didn't stay long enough to let the message land.
Stop Shouting into the Void
If you have meaningful stories to tell but can’t seem to find the right way to reach your audience, this is what we solve inside the Personal Brand Accelerator (PBA).
It’s an online course and community designed to help you clarify your message, master the art of framing, and get real results without losing your soul to the algorithm.
